White House's Snow on Iraq: history knocking at our door

By Seth Mandel
The Jewish State

The United States, divided over the war in Iraq, is at a crossroads through which the Middle East -- and much of the world -- will follow, White House Press Secretary Tony Snow told a New York City audience Aug. 16.

"In some ages, people don't know whether history is going to come knocking at their door -- we do," Snow said. "This is not a sleepy time for us. Everything that matters to us as a people is up for grabs: our security, our prosperity, our posterity, our values."

Snow's address, hosted by global security think-tank Hudson Institute at the Union League Club in Manhattan, was a comprehensive policy and progress update on the U.S.-led Operation Iraqi Freedom. With the "surge" now in place, public discussion on the war -- both in opposition to and in support of -- has taken its audience and participants in new directions. Editorials, op-eds, public speeches, radio addresses, and reaction from presidential candidates have all offered the American public a wide array of commentary on the reported significant improvement in the American mission in Iraq.

Hudson Institute President Herb London called Snow, who began his term as press secretary in April 2006, the "most effective press secretary we've ever had."

Snow, whose speech came a month ahead of the highly anticipated Sept. 15 congressional testimony of Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, told the audience that the American people are facing several foes in this battle; seemingly new ones, such as al-Qaeda, and older ones, like isolationism and protectionism.

Following Petraus's and Crocker's hearings, Americans will hear the partisan responses, the political histrionics, and the voice of the American people, Snow said, but eventually Republicans and Democrats will vote on whether and how U.S. troops will continue their mission in Iraq.

"Does this generation of American leaders still believe in the home truths that in the passage of one short century turned this country from a backwater into the leader of the world?" Snow said. "Or, more simply, do we still wish to be a superpower?"

The war, which began as immensely popular, has seen its support wane considerably over the last four years. Some, Snow said, want to see American foreign policy be taken in a new direction, one that would shore up America's popularity abroad.

But, Snow said, some of President George W. Bush's "unpopular" decisions have delivered nations from bad policies and bad leaders, and those nations -- the ones directly affected -- knew it.

"We should be proud, and not ashamed, of the record of an administration that has decided occasionally to lean into the winds of passing opinion," Snow said. "Because the president understands that polls and public protests may come and go, but the responsibilities and duties of leadership do not."

Snow told the crowd to think of Iraq as a large pond; history is about to drop a large stone into that pond, causing a series of pronounced ripple effects.

"The chain reaction will change the course of civilization, the only unresolved question is how," he said.

There are two options for dealing with the war and controlling those ripple effects. The first, Snow said, is to leave Iraq according to a withdrawal timetable. But a hasty retreat, according to even opponents of the war, as well as the widely criticized report of the Iraq Study Group, would produce bloodshed on a "horrifying scale."

That, however, is only the beginning, Snow warned.

If Iraq falls, he said, al-Qaeda will have established a haven for itself in an oil-rich nation; Iran will move to destabilize Sunni areas in Iraq and Shi'ite nations in the region; Afghanistan would soon feel a "tsunami of terror" sweeping its way through that nation and on to Pakistan, India, China, Micronesia, etc.

This is a region, Snow said, that encompasses more than half the world's population, and a growing share of the world's wealth.

In addition, Snow asked, would nations in the region trust in the security offered them by the United States? It would be difficult for the government in Saudi Arabia to believe they could count on the U.S. and not have to take matters into their own hands.

Then, of course, there is Israel. An invaluable strategic ally of the United States in the region, Israel would be directly affected by any outcome in Iraq, Snow said. Should Israel feel the same sense of confidence in the United States if it continues to fight for peace and stability in the region while the U.S. gives up on its nation-building mission?

The only conclusion Israel could come to -- and it's a conclusion that the U.S. should avoid letting Israel come to, Snow said -- is that the only democracy in the Middle East would be on its own, as the region's volcanic rumblings began to indicate the coming eruption of violence and volatility.

Hezbollah, he said, would control Lebanon; Hamas would continue splintering Palestinian unity; and Egypt would look for ways to simply get out of the crosshairs of blossoming terrorist organizations no longer on the run.

"And all of a sudden, alliances that we've spent a half-century building will crumble, as if into dust," Snow said.

Terror cells would strengthen from Kosovo to Iceland to Africa. The U.S. would lose far more than just its influence.

"It's ludicrous to think that if the United States simply walked away, the world would become a safer place," Snow said.

He added that a U.S. retreat would mark a victory for al-Qaeda greater than the Sept. 11 terror attacks, and it would prove correct Osama bin Laden's calculation that in order to defeat the U.S., one simply has wait them out.

"This is why bin Laden and (al-Qaeda leader and Red Mosque siege architect) Ayman al-Zawahiri both identified Iraq as the central front in the war on terror," Snow said. "They know that if we withdraw short of victory, they win."

But there is another option, Snow said. Those ripple effects could be from a different type of change sweeping through the region; those ripple effects could be emanating from a free and democratic state in Iraq for a people who have known only oppression and despotism.

"The establishment of a stable democracy in Iraq would serve as the ultimate refutation of the philosophy, the means, and the methods of the terrorists," Snow said.

The terror network, he continued, will have failed, lost its credibility, and in so doing opened up the Iraqi hearts and minds to a new destiny of self-government. The "cult of death" that is the adulterated, manipulated, extremist, and radical form of Islam will concede the battle to free, peaceful Muslim communities in Iraq.

"Two destinies for the region: blood and conflagration, or freedom and enterprise," Snow said. "An endless stream of threats to our security and safety, or opportunities to make us safer, freer, and more prosperous. Those are the roads that lie ahead."

Given the choice, he said, we should be asking ourselves not how to leave, but how to win.

Fortunately, it seems the tide is turning, Snow offered. He gave the audience a run-down of some of the progress now being made in Iraq that is so significant it has even taken some of the commanders on the ground by surprise.

• High profile attacks have dropped nearly 50 percent since May, to 70 a month;
• The number of tips from Iraqi citizens has quadrupled from 6,000 a month to 24,000;
• Those tips have led U.S. forces to valuable targets including weapons caches: so far this year they've captured more than 3,700 weapons caches, already eclipsing last year's total of 2,700;
• U.S. forces have also taken down dozens of senior al-Qaeda leaders, along with Sunni insurrectionists and Shi'a militia members;
• U.S. forces have increased the pace of battalion-level operations 50 percent from last year;
• Sectarian murders have declined dramatically, from 1,713 in December to 626 in June;
• Coalition forces are killing or capturing an average of 1,500 al-Qaeda terrorists and other enemies per month since January.

"You call that losing? You call that failure?" Snow said. "Facts are curious things, aren't they?"

Additionally, Snow said, the U.S. has sent Provisional Reconstruction Teams (PRT), who have helped Iraqis form institutions such as banks, businesses, law books, community centers, and agribusinesses.

The surge isn't just working because the U.S. government sent another 30,000 troops to Iraq; it's working, Snow said, because of powers the Iraqi people have for the first time: the power of reason, the power of hope, and the power of an idea. The first thing the Iraqis learned from the surge is that the U.S. wasn't going to walk away.

Snow quoted a young lieutenant, writing on an online message board defending the military's actions to vocal opponents of the war.

"Consider that there are 19-year-old soldiers from the Midwest who have never touched a college campus or protest, who have done more than protesters to uphold the universal legitimacy of representative government and individual rights by placing themselves between Iraqi voting lines and homicidal religious fanatics," the lieutenant wrote. "Please remember that the problems that plague Iraq today were set in motion centuries ago. Don't forget that human beings have a responsibility to one another and that Americans will always have a responsibility to the oppressed."

One Iraqi told the young lieutenant the difference between Americans and the terrorists: "They get paid to take lives -- to murder -- and you get paid to save lives."

America, Snow said, has done a better job than we might believe in teaching the younger generations about freedom. They understand it much more completely and more profoundly than those who want to view the war in terms of body counts or angry speeches. The re-enlistment rates for the U.S. Army are higher for those who have served in Iraq than any other part of the military.

"Politicians intractably opposed to this war regardless of facts on the ground are betting on two things: they're betting against the power of freedom to inspire people, and they're also betting against the resilience, dedication, and capability of American men and women," Snow said. "I wouldn't take either of those bets."

And much of the recent success is due to the Iraqi people, he said. This year, tribal chiefs in Anbar Province have begun fighting back against al-Qaeda, and approached coalition forces to form an alliance. The results have been stunning, he said, especially in what was considered to be the most dangerous place in the country: the town of Ramadi.

• Last year, Ramadi averaged 40 attacks per day. The average today is less than one;
• A year ago, Ramadi had two police stations with 200 officers. Today, it has 30 police stations with 7,400 officers;
• In three days, more than 1,200 army recruits signed up in the town;
• Ambassador Crocker recently went into the Ramadi marketplace without body armor. He was greeted with flowers and candy and cheers of gratitude.
• Another general reported that the surge led to the killing and capture of dozens of al-Qaeda leaders, the capture of dozens of weapons caches, and the destruction of terror cells throughout the country.

"So while politicians rankle, American men and women are helping Iraqis build a nation amid the scarred remnants of a land that is marked by mass graves, drain swamps, charnel houses, and torture chambers," Snow said.

Iraqis have begun not only helping to build security fences and checkpoints, they have begun to guard them, allowing American forces to recede to the background, he said. While Iraqis are helping with security issues, they have gone back to their daily lives; teachers returned to their classrooms, doctors began treating patients again, storeowners restocked their shelves, and garbage collectors cleaned up the streets.

And the budding Iraq economy is seeing the results:

• Since the war began, the average income of Iraqis has tripled, even accounting for inflation;
• More than 200,000 engineers are employed at more than 240 factories around the country;
• The Iraqi government is working to spend $10 billion this year -- one-quarter of its budget -- on capital investment;
• Since the surge began, in Anbar Province alone, the U.S. has spent $5.5 million on economic and employment programs that have provided jobs for 18,000 Iraqis.

"What we had always expected as the very last thing to happen is that the Iraqi people would have a grassroots rebellion in favor of American values," Snow said. "But instead, that's the first thing that's happened."

The road ahead is still a difficult one, Snow said, not least on Iraq's political front. But even critics and cynics of American foreign policy are beginning to grudgingly show their admiration of what the U.S. is accomplishing in Iraq, Snow said.

Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.), a vocal opponent of the current administration, reported the following from his recent trip to Iraq: "we did see people walking around the streets of Ramadi, going back and forth to market. The success in Ramadi is not just because of bombs and bullets, but because the U.S. and Iraqi military and Iraqi police are partnering with the tribal leadership and the religious leadership."

And the German news magazine Der Spiegel sent a reporter to update the magazine's European audience on the situation in Iraq.

"Ramadi is an irritating contradiction of almost everything the world thinks it knows about Iraq -- it is proof that the U.S. military is more successful than the world wants to believe," wrote Der Spiegel's Ullrich Fichtner. "Ramadi demonstrates that large parts of Iraq -- not just Anbar Province, but also many other rural areas along the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers -- are essentially pacified today. This is news the world doesn't hear: Ramadi, long a hotbed of unrest, a city that once formed the southwestern tip of the notorious 'Sunni Triangle,' is now telling a different story, a story of Americans who came here as liberators, became hated occupiers and are now the protectors of Iraqi reconstruction."

The Americans who are accomplishing this -- doctors, lawyers, stock brokers, professional athletes, rich kids, and poor kids -- are not suffering from a fleeting sense of idealism, Snow said.

"These people are made of something special," Snow said. "These people are made of something that certainly I wish I had, which is a kind of courage that, knowing what the risks are going in, they go ahead and they embrace it."

It is a showdown between justice, liberty, enterprise, and freedom against oppression, he said. The world expects more from the American people and the American people continue to deliver.

We and our leaders, he said, should rely on strength, not polls; we should discuss and disagree, but always have faith in ourselves.

Decades from now, Snow said, Americans will look back and see that two roads diverged, and that the U.S. "took the one less traveled by."

They will see that "the American administration resisted public pressure, withstood opposition from old friends and accepted the burdens of hardship and grief; but in so doing made the world a safer and better place, and gave future generations yet another reason to be proud, and yet another generation to celebrate as the greatest."