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Election is over, but contest still going strong
Israel's unclear outcome leads to power struggle to form coalition

Sybil Kaplan, Leslie Susser, and Seth Mandel
THE JEWISH STATE
February 13, 2009

Although nearly all the votes have been counted, it's still not clear who has really won the Israeli election.

Tzipi Livni's Kadima emerged as the largest single party, but the right-wing parliamentary bloc, led by Likud's Binyamin Netanyahu, captured the majority of the Knesset seats. Kadima appears to have won 28 seats to the Likud's 27, but altogether the right-wing and religious bloc captured 65 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

At post-election parties Tuesday night, both sides claimed victory.

Indeed, given the mixed result, both Livni and Netanyahu have a chance to become Israel's next prime minister.

President Shimon Peres will decide to whom to give the first chance to form a governing coalition, but it will be a dilemma. Some speculate it will be Kadima's Livni, even though she failed to form one in October; others say it will be Netanyahu, since the results of the election showed a victory for the Israeli Right, for which Netanyahu is the favored leader. Peres will likely have to wait until Feb. 18, when the results are final, to officially consult with the factions elected to the Knesset about who should form a coalition. Whoever is recommended by more Knesset members should get the nod.

The strength in Netanyahu's hand is that he has the votes to form a coalition with the hawks, at least some of whom Livni needs to form one comprised mostly of doves. The snag for Netanyahu is that he does not want to form a narrow right-wing government that would be isolated on the international stage. Indeed, there were indications before the election that Netanyahu would strongly consider sharing the defense portfolio with Labor's Ehud Barak, provided his party picked up enough seats to carry such authority. It did not, and Barak has suggested he is headed for the opposition.

Unfortunately for Livni, the law clearly states that the task should be conferred on the Knesset member with the best chance of success. To determine who that may be, the president is supposed to consult with all the parties represented in parliament. If Netanyahu can keep his bloc together, a majority will recommend him to Peres in consultations slated for next week.

Joining The Jewish State in the official media center in Jerusalem were journalists from the Netherlands, Canada, France, Japan, China, the Czech Republic, Sweden, South America, the United Kingdom, the U.S., and Turkey. The Turkish television journalist, Bulent Guler, has been in Israel for a month covering the operation in Gaza and its aftermath, while keeping track of the growing tension between Israel and Turkey.

The Chinese radio broadcaster, Qi Yuan, has been in Israel more than two years. He told The Jewish State: "Israel is an important country that has established formal relations with China. China pays attention to these relationships."

In the race to form a coalition, Yisrael Beiteinu's Avigdor Lieberman could be holding the ace. With 15 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu is now the third-largest party in the Knesset, ahead of Labor, which won only 13.

Although normally counted in the right-wing bloc because of his hard line against terror, Lieberman said he is keeping his options open.

Indeed, on some issues Lieberman could find common ground with Livni. For example, both may favor changing the electoral system and introducing a form of civil marriage in Israel -- issues that resonate powerfully among Lieberman's heavily Russian immigrant support base. Lieberman could get more on these issues from Livni, who has no fealty to the religious parties, than from Netanyahu, who is committed to including the Orthodox Shas in his government. But Shas leader Eli Yishai said he will not rule out joining a coalition that includes Yisrael Beiteinu, possibly smoothing out one wrinkle in Netanyahu's efforts.

Lieberman, however, is considered more likely to join Netanyahu's Likud, for two reasons. First, his party gained so many seats in this election because of the Israeli public's clear desire to move the government to the Right, and handing Livni a victory would be a move opposed by most, if not all, of Lieberman's voters. The second reason is that should Lieberman hand the Right a defeat after a victory at the polls, it could endanger the existence of his Yisrael Beiteinu party, which would likely lose its supporters back to Likud in such a case.

On security, Netanyahu ran on a platform of toppling Hamas, taking a more proactive approach to the Iranian threat, keeping Jerusalem united and maintaining the strategic Golan Heights. On education, Netanyahu said he wanted to ensure Israeli schools put more emphasis on Zionism and Israeli and Jewish cultural traditions, while raising the bar on teacher qualifications. On the economy, Netanyahu favors tax cuts, increased investment in research and development, and increased economic partnership between Israel and Mahmoud Abbas' West Bank-based Palestinian Authority.

Livni based her campaign on three central elements: establishing her credentials as a national leader; attacking Netanyahu as a prime minister who had failed once and would fail again for the same reasons; and presenting her policies as the best prescription for Israel's long-term survival. She described the election as being about whether or not Israel should go for peace, casting Tuesday's vote as a choice between hope and fear, and emphasizing that negotiations on a final-status peace deal with the Palestinians must continue.

So what are the some of the coalition options?

* A narrow right-wing government led by Netanyahu and comprised of Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, United Torah Judaism, National Union, and Jewish Home. This 65-seat coalition would be a stable government but would not give Netanyahu room to maneuver either on the Palestinian or Syrian peace tracks, and likely would be seen by the international community, including the new U.S. administration, as intransigent.

* Lieberman throws his support to Livni, who is able to bring Likud on board for an emergency national unity government for a fixed time period comprised of Kadima, Yisrael Beiteinu, Likud, and Labor -- a total of 83 seats -- dedicated to one goal: changing the electoral system. Livni, Netanyahu, Lieberman, and Labor's Ehud Barak all said that the uncertain election results have underscored the need for reform.

* Livni blinks first and agrees to serve in a Netanyahu-led national unity government comprised of Likud, Kadima, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, and the religious National Home Party -- 83 seats.

* Netanyahu blinks first and agrees to serve in a similar government but with rotation of the prime minister -- Livni for two years and then Netanyahu for two years. This is the compromise many pundits think may emerge. It gives Livni a chance to be prime minister and allows Netanyahu to head a government with a degree of peacemaking leeway and greater international legitimacy. This was the model adopted in 1984 by Shimon Peres, then head of the Labor Party, and Likud's Yitzhak Shamir. The difference then was that the two blocs, center-left and religious-right, were actually tied at 60-60.

Israel's electoral system

The Knesset's electoral system is a party list proportional representation. The electorate votes for a national party list rather than for individuals. Each party draws up a list of candidates, made known to the public.

The number of members of the Knesset each party receives is proportionate to the number of votes received in the election. The Knesset has 120 seats. If a party wins 10 percent of the votes, it gets 12 seats.

Voting is by secret ballots. Voters are given an envelope and enter a voting booth where ballot papers representing different parties are sitting on a table. The voter puts the ballot of the party of his choice into the envelope and then leaves the booth and deposits it in a ballot box. Voters must be 18 years old to vote and residents of Israel. There is no absentee ballot, except for active military service members.

After the election results are known, the President asks the leader of the largest party to form a new coalition government of at least 61 of the 120 Knesset members. A coalition consists of several parties and those not part of the coalition are considered the opposition.

Sybil Kaplan and JTA's Leslie Susser reported from Jerusalem.