![]() Will Yemen take Gaza 'glocal?'
Analysts explore the influence of al-Qaeda affiliates in the Palestinian territories
Alexander Traum THE JEWISH STATE February 5, 2010
Despite al-Qaeda's frequent verbal attacks on Israel, the international terrorist organization has yet to make the Jewish state a priority for actual attacks, analysts said. "If the deeds matched the rhetoric, you'd think they would commit more resources," Dr. Matthew Levitt, director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told The Jewish State, noting that al-Qaeda's rhetorical bombs were mostly used as a marketing tool to recruit and fundraise. There is, however, a growing number of individuals and groups in Gaza inspired by Salafi-Jihadi or global jihadist ideology even while al-Qaeda itself has no formal presence in the Palestinian territories. In a recent study by Levitt, Yoram Cohen, and Becca Wasser, titled Deterred but Determined -- Salafi-Jihadi Groups in the Palestinian Arena the authors detail what they see as the increased number of people in Gaza who affiliate -- ideologically, if not institutionally -- with Osama bin Laden's network. The study also argues that al-Qaeda is unlikely to take root in the Gaza Strip any time in the near future. While there has been an increase in fighters in Gaza who identify with global jihadist ideology, intelligence officials, according to Levitt, put the number of these individuals at approximately 200-300. Given this relatively small number, Levitt said that the fear of al-Qaeda in Gaza "has been hyped in the media." There are a number of factors, Levitt said, that help explain this increased radicalization in Gaza, from the growing popularity of the Internet -- on which al-Qaeda propagandizes -- to dissatisfaction with the status quo. One significant reason, according to Levitt, has to do with the conditions that Hamas creates for itself by "balancing its own jihadist identity and commitment to violent 'resistance' with the need to govern and establish control in the Strip." "As a result, some ideologically extreme and militant Hamas operatives have broken with the group and joined Salafi-Jihadi groups that espouse 'pure resistance,' denouncing even temporary ceasefires or truces with Israel and calling for the immediate implementation of sharia, or Islamic law, in Gaza," the authors write. Salafi-Jihadi groups have also been emboldened by the influx of foreign fighters from Egypt, the Arabian Peninsula (particularly Yemen), and European countries, Levitt said, though added that intelligence officials estimate the number of foreign fighters in Gaza at only 30-50, and none of them actually affiliated with al-Qaeda. Brian O'Neill, a journalist who has lived and reported in Yemen for years, said that jihadists there sympathize with Palestinians, though see Hamas as "parochial" and "not as ideological pure enough for them." O'Neill recalled covering a protest in Yemen following the Israeli assassination of a Hezbollah leader, where signs of "Death to Israel. Death to America" were prominently displayed. After initiating conversation with some of the protesters and making them aware that he was American, O'Neill recalled them telling him "that it was nothing personal." "There isn't the high level of concern for Israel and Palestine that there are in places closer to there," O'Neill said. "They are much more concerned with what's happening on the Arabian Peninsula than what's happening in Israel and Palestine." Despite this apparent increase in Salafi-jihadi fighters in Gaza, Levitt predicted that they "will remain limited in capability" and there is unlikely to be any true al-Qaeda affiliate from developing there any time soon. For one, Gazans have witnessed the benefits that Israelis enjoy by living in a "moderate, prosperous, democratic society." "The vast majority of Palestinians do not want their cause globalized by al-Qaeda or anyone else; they want sovereignty, economic prosperity, and control over their own lives independent of Israeli authorities," according to the study. Secondly, Hamas, having gained control of Gaza only several years ago, is unwilling to relinquish any power, illustrated by its recent crackdowns on Salafi-jihadi groups. Third are the Israeli government's counter-terrorism efforts and the country's increased security cooperation with the Palestinian Authority and Egypt, the latter having stepped up enforcement of its border blockade. "At the end of the day, even if Gaza itself is a haven for terrorists, they can't be effective if they cant bring in weapons," Levitt said. "That said, one successful attack is all you need." The fear, analysts say, is if al-Qaeda decides to go beyond rhetoric and take up Israel as one of its actual priorities, rendering the conflict "glocal" -- one that combines the global jihadist ideology with the local conflict. "Indeed, of all the local conflicts al-Qaeda might want to commandeer, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict seems the most logical," the authors write. "Rife with both religious symbolism -- including a dispute over the status of Jerusalem, the third holiest city in Islam -- and the enduring symbolism of a population under occupation by a Western-backed, non-Arab, non-Muslim country, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could reasonably be seen as a paradigmatic 'near jihad' targeting a local government ripe for conversion to a platform for engaging in the 'far jihad' targeting the United States and the West. Yet al-Qaeda has not made operations against Israel a priority, nor has its Salafi-Jihadi cause caught on among significant numbers." Jonathan Schanzer, vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that the fear of al-Qaeda infiltrating Gaza is a real concern given the similar ideologies between al-Qaeda and Hamas. "It's not that these two elements are so disparate -- they stem from the same roots, the Muslim Brotherhood," Schanzer said. "They both embrace a Sunni jihadist viewpoint of the world." However, there are reasons, Schanzer said, that will prevent al-Qaeda from taking hold, including Hamas' desire to remain in control of Gaza as well as their recognition that openly allying themselves with al-Qaeda would result in a public relations fallout with the international community. "While we're not in the situation where we can expect Hamas to embrace al-Qaeda, we should expect minimal cooperation at the least," he said. The danger of an al-Qaeda operation in Gaza, according to Schanzer, is the potential for larger scale attacks as opposed to the typical, relatively ineffective Qassam rockets that now that are launched from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel. "The danger is not so much the ideology, which as I said are very similar," Schanzer said. "I'm more worried about the imagination that al-Qaeda brings to the table." "Al-Qaeda has had the imagination to find the soft-underbelly of its enemies," he added.
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