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Confronting the post-war questions about Gaza

Richard Quinn
SPECIAL TO THE JEWISH STATE
January 30, 2009

In wartime, rhetoric flies as fast as the bullets.

The recent engagement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is no exception, but when most of the bombs stopped falling after a ceasefire agreement ended the 22-day siege, the rhetoric continued. Analysts quoted both sides bombastically claiming victories, in part to stymie the opponent, in part to tilt the scale of public opinion.

Israel publicly took credit for damaging Hamas' ability to rearm itself; declared victory in shuttering tunnels used for smuggling people and weapons to and from Egypt; and boasted of weakening the power of a Palestinian leadership struggling to hold off its political rival. Hamas defiantly rebutted that the tunnels will be rebuilt and that their popularity remains as high as ever among both Palestinians and the greater Arab world.

Observers noted that the platitudes of both sides echoed similar ones uttered before Israel began its offensive last month. Both sides remain entrenched in their positions, despite Arab summits and the potential intervention of a new political administration from the United States. In all, it leaves pundits, analysts, and ideologues wondering what's changed -- and perhaps more importantly, what's next. How does a peace process move forward in the sputtering of war? Is a two-state solution still the answer, or is a three-tiered plan that delineates borders between Israel, the West Bank and Gaza? Can Hamas continue as a ruling party, or must something first change within the Palestinian ruling structure?

"This is a classic political tragedy," Gordon Schochet, a political science professor at Rutgers University, wrote in an email to The Jewish State.

Schochet, co-executive editor of Hebraic Political Studies, an international peer-reviewed journal published in Jerusalem, said that the United States in 2006 "got itself into something of a pickle by calling for 'democratic' elections and then, in effect, objecting to the results.

"Someone has to step in and treat all the parties to this conflict like the children they are," Schochet wrote, "send them to their rooms without supper, without television and without toys… and tell them that they're not coming out until they show that (they) can share their toys and play well with the other children."

To date, no country or leader has been able to fill that role. American diplomacy under former President George W. Bush stalled over the past few years, giving way the past few months to President Barack Obama, who has still yet to do little more than lament the recent war's casualties and pledge to work with Arab leaders moving forward.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has suggested that his country would deal with Hamas as part of a nationalized Palestinian authority that rejected the use of violence, but little progress has been made toward that end, which leaves at least one scholar arguing that Hamas feels emboldened amid the rubble of this latest conflict.

"Hamas feels it has come out unbroken and popular among Palestinians and Arabs," Palestinian analyst Khalil Shikaki told the New York Times.

Schochet hopes Obama is measured in his support of Israel, while pushing for restraint on both sides of the political dialogue. However, the question becomes: Who sits at the table for those talks in the first place? Some analysts question whether Israel, the U.S., or other countries should talk with Hamas as the recognized Palestinian voice, or whether other bureaucratic options exist, such as an emboldened Fatah party.

The latest poll from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research showed Fatah (42 percent) remains more popular than Hamas (28 percent), although neither receives a majority vote of confidence. Only 29 percent of those polled expect Obama to strengthen America's role in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The snapshot in time is from a few weeks before the latest conflict began, so the next round of polling will be a clearer insight into the current Palestinian psyche, said David Schenker, director of the Arab politics program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

"The military portion of the battle has been fought for now," Schenker told The Jewish State. "Now you have securing the military gains of the campaign: the diplomatic fight."

Again, though, there are more questions than answers.

Will the U.S. rally behind Fatah, which is the controlling part in the West Bank but has seen its popularity in Gaza shrink? Will it continue to show preferential support for Mahmoud Abbas, who Hamas leaders say has overstayed his welcome as Palestinian president? The nascent Obama team has yet to decide how it will answer these queries, instead announcing only the envoy it will use to do to the talking.

Once that emissary -- longtime diplomat and former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell -- arrives in the Middle East, his choice on behalf of the new administration is clear, Schenker said.

"They have to choose either bullets or ballots," Schenker added. "They can't have them both."

Then again, Schochet noted, what is a "proportionate" solution? Schenker said the "relatively calm" six months before Israel's military operation saw Gaza import longer-range missiles that give it the ability to extend its target possibilities to just outside of Tel-Aviv.

"Should Israel just accept the occasional and generally inaccurate rocket from Gaza and allow the Gazans to improve their arsenal?" Schochet said. "Israel faces enemies who want the [Israeli] nation obliterated and many of whose members are eager to die in pursuit of their cause. From the Palestinian perspective, the Israelis are parasitic interlopers who want them destroyed. And so we come back to my quest for (a) global mom who will discipline the unruly children."

Schenker said Israel's military might has been proven versus Hamas. But like Hezbollah in Lebanon several years ago, the Jewish state will gain little if Hamas is allowed to rebuild Gaza and take credit for that reconstruction in the eyes of the Palestinian people. Throw in the human nature to "rally round the flag" during wartime, and "Hamas had a very low threshold for the campaign."

To move forward now from the Israeli perspective, the toeholds gained by force must be cemented by finesse. Only then can anyone answer the question: Was it worth it?

"Militarily, I'd say many people in Israel think there were some gains," Schenker said. "If they don't win the peace, which is the coming political battle… the jury's still out."