When phones ring in June, it could be a demographer
By Lauren Matthew
March 14, 2008

The Jewish Federation of Greater Middlesex County will soon be implementing a random call program to size up the needs of the local Jewish community. A demographer, Dr. Ira M. Sheskin, director of the Jewish Demography Project of the Sue and Ira Miller Center for Contemporary Judaic Studies at the University of Miami, will head up the effort.

According to the federation, goals of this demographic study include estimating the size, geographic distribution, and projected movement of the Jewish population of the county, as well as social, economic, and employment trends.

The federation did a similar study 12 years ago, but it's time to take a fresh look at things, according to Laura Safran, planning and allocations director for the federation. At the time, the federation's own database was used, she said, which made it somewhat biased toward people who are Jewishly affiliated. It did, however, gather enough information for the federation to make programming and planning choices, she said.

The results of that survey were a series of program grants and the creation of a series of committees within the federation which focused on separate issues, Safran said, such as the needs of the community's aging population. From there, various programs would come in to the committees and submit requests for funding.

"It kind of changed how [the] federation allocated its dollars," Safran said.

But the federation felt that this system was limited in its effectiveness, and moved away from program grants toward core allocations. This, Safran explained, means that agencies which receive funding from the federation dictating to them exactly how and where to use it.

"We find that the system we do now... works better for our agencies," she said.

But, Safran noted, a study is really only "good" and accurate for eight to 10 years. It's time for new information.

The study Sheskin will be conducting is more scientific, Safran said, and will use random-digit dialing. Sheskin will purchase phone numbers from a company in Connecticut -- but he will not receive the names that go with them. This, Safran noted, means that Sheskin will be calling both Jews and non-Jews.

"If they're not Jewish, [the surveyors] thank them and hang up," Safran said.

But by calling non-Jews, the federation will get a much better picture of the makeup of the community as a whole.

This study will be the 44th Sheskin has conducted in the U.S.

"He is very professional and very dedicated," Safran said. "He has a very clear understanding of what the community needs to know."

Sheskin was chosen by the community, Safran said, largely based on his experience in other demographic studies for other Jewish federations.

"It's a very small niche," she said. "There aren't so many people who do this."

But when Sheskin comes back to the Federation with collected data, he will be able to compare it to that of 43 other Federations -- something that will give it context and offer the community a fresh perspective.

Safran said she counts this a boon. "It's a phone call," she said, that can be made to a federation anywhere in the country to find out how to better a program at which someone else might excel.

Questions interviewers will ask during their phone calls range from basic care (example: Do you need help getting dressed in the morning?) to level of observance, education, social service and aspects of Jewish culture.

"The hope is that a lot of people who are reached are unaffiliated," Safran said. "We kind of want to figure out where the Jews are and how the community is changing."

Safran said there is always a "community hypothesis" -- an idea of what a particular area is really like.

"This will disprove it or prove it," she said.

Sheskin will use a phonebook from 2000 and from 2008, Safran said, and he will be able to map out the movement of Jews within the community to see if they are moving from one town to another

The survey will also look at institutions and synagogue membership numbers.

"People are as truthful as they feel they need to be," Safran said. But some people may not be honest, she explained, when it comes to questions about household income, regardless of the fact that anonymity is preserved.

Results and data from this process will be used for long-range and short-term planning, Safran noted. The Federation already has a $240,000 grant for a naturally occurring retirement community (NORC) for use in Highland Park. The survey will help prioritize funds like this for future use.

For example, Safran continued, Monroe has a lot of adult communities, but they may not have adequate medical resources nearby to accommodate those communities.

"We have to plan for that, because the truth is that the Jewish community is not going to let anything happen to its constitutents," Safran said.

Although the federation is paying for the study, it will benefit synagogues and area Jewish institutions, and the information gathered will not only be used by the federation. Once the study is complete, the federation will have panels where the demographer will present data specifically targeted for institutions and synagogues.

"We will provide information that may be most attractive to those institutions," Safran said.

The goal is to share information with as many groups and people as possible, she noted.

Phone calls will begin June 15. Sheskin estimates that for every hang-up, the federation loses $50.

"We're hoping that they pick up the phone," Safran said. "The information gleaned will really help the entire community. We want them to anticipate those phone calls."

Safran also noted that the federation is looking for people to make those calls. The demographer is hiring help at a rate of $16 per hour with a minimum work time of 12 hours per week. For more information, contact Safran at (732) 432-7711, ext. 24, or visit the federation's Web site, www.jewishmiddlesex.org. There is a page dedicated to the study.

"When [the] Federation agreed to do this study, they did so on the condition that we engage in a long-range plan as soon as it's done to ensure that it just doesn't sit on the shelf," Safran said. "We are completely committed."