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We are now a majority; we probably always will be. That is the demographic truth to burst all bubbles and bring us from "baseless demographic fatalism to documented demographic optimism," according to former Ambassador Yoram Ettinger, a member of the American-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG).

Ettinger sought to refute the claim that Israeli Jewish birth rates were declining and birth rates of Arabs were increasing, and therefore Arabs would soon be a majority in Israel.

In fact, said Ettinger, the key findings of documented research for the past four years and documented continuing research show this not to be the case.

Using the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics figures for 2007, the Palestinian Authority Ministry of Health, the Palestinian Authority Election Commission documents and Education information, according to Ettinger, AIDRG "decided to act like a CPA auditing firm."

For example, to the amazement of the Israelis, included in the census of Arabs were 325,000 people living abroad. "According to internationally accepted demographic standards, overseas residents abroad over one year are not counted demographically. Israel abides by this; the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics does not follow this," Ettinger said.

Jersalem Arab residents with Israeli identity cards, eligible voters, birth numbers, and UNRWA figures on so-called "refugees" are all taken into consideration.

There was a 30 percent inflation of real numbers by the Arab demographers, according to AIDRG. Thus, the true figures show 1.5 million Arabs in Judea/Samaria and 1.2 million in Gaza or a total of 2.7 million in Judea/Samaria and Gaza.

Given the declining Arab birthrate, high emigration, family planning by UNWRA, a decline in teen pregnancies, higher median wedding age, expanded education and moves from rural to urban, the Arab population of Israel and Judea/Samaria is 33 percent with a 67 percent Jewish majority. The Arab population of Israel, Judea/Samaria, and Gaza is 41 percent with a 59 percent Jewish majority.

"The bottom line," Ettinger said, "is there is no room for pessimism and fatalism. Between the river and the Mediterranean, the Jews are not doomed to be a minority."

He said the goal is now to do away with fatalism from those who unintentionally professed a demographic doomsday.

Regarding Judea/Samaria, he commented, "Judea and Samaria are absolutely indispensable if the Jewish state wishes to survive in the Middle East. It is strategically wrong to draft false, erroneous statements to mislead people to make a hasty decision. [The Arabs and we] are destined to coexist."

According to documented numbers, the message is: "demography is not a lethal threat; 67 percent between the river and the Mediterranean are Jewish." Ettinger projects that Jewish figure will rise to 80 percent in the next 25-30 years.

Judea/Samaria Council's position

Dani Dayan is chairman of the board of the Council for Jewish Communities in Judea and Samaria. Born in Buenos Aires, Argentina, the 54-year-old former founder and manager of one of Israel's largest IT companies moved to Israel in 1971 and has been in this position since July 2007. The council is the umbrella organization representing the 300,000 Jews living in Judea and Samaria.

The soft-spoken Dayan expressed his feelings that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the preceding government had been "hostile" to the cause of the communities in Judea/Samaria because of issues of Israel's sovereignty over Judea/Samaria. Olmert's platform of 2006 advocated withdrawal from Judea/Samaria; three years later, Dayan said, Olmert "is history" and 45,000 additional Jews are living in Judea/Samaria. During this time, construction of homes has been frozen and permits for places such as kindergartens and ritual baths were withheld but in 2008, the Jewish population grew 5.5 percent.

Goals of the next five years

Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu refused to include the two-state solution in his basic policy outline, and Dayan believes "a Palestinian state is the problem, not the solution. It's been the only game in town since 1993, and it has not led to peace but to more and more violence." The peace process in its course or structure leads nowhere and is counterproductive, he said.

Without a two-state or even any kind of Palestinian state, Dayan believes three things can be improved: security — as long as full security responsibility is in the hands of Israel; there can be economic success for the Palestinians and Jewish communities; and there can be success concerning human rights' issues.

Within Israel, there is often talk of "unauthorized outposts." There are a few hundred communities established by the Israeli government with government aid after 2002. Then the government decided to stop the approval process and the communities became unauthorized. Using one particular community, Migron, as an example, there was an agreement on ownership of land and Dayan believes this should now be applied to all 100 outposts. If they are not on state land, then they will be relocated.

"Not even one Palestinian Arab was removed from his house to build settlements or outposts," he stated emphatically. "We don't want to build on Arab-owned land."

He pointed out that Judea/Samaria was the "heartland," liberated in a defensive war. "The rule of the game is winner takes all," he said. "The only party to blame for lack of political rights is the Palestinians themselves."

He also stated that Jordan is, essentially, a Palestinian state. He hopes that Jordan will open regional possibilities in the next five years and come up with options to solve the situation.

Security in Judea/Samaria among the Palestinians was in the hands of the Palestinian Authority, but since December 2007 when it became part of Israel's responsibility, he said, "there have been no casualties from terrorists."