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From the Publisher:
Jewish vote could elect the next president

By Elias Ezra

October 10, 2008
 

For months we have been reading, listening, and watching the news about the presidential election on Nov. 4, 2008. As the publisher of The Jewish State I have wanted to write about the upcoming election as it relates to the Jewish people.

For many reasons, I cannot and will not show any favoritism to, or endorse, either candidate; not because my managing editor refuses to allow such an article to go through, not because it would take away our important impartiality, not because it might hurt advertising revenue or even subscriptions, not because it would take away our non-tax status (we are a for-profit enterprise), but mainly because it would divide the Jewish people. And one of our goals with this paper is to report the news of and to the Jewish world in order to build it up, not to divide it.

Having said that, I embark on a short prescription to provide some of the facts and concerns of the Jewish people in this election.

Prior to the Great Depression, the Jews, as a rule, voted Republican. But since the New Deal days of former President Franklin D. Roosevelt, they have voted Democratic no matter what.

President George W. Bush, arguably the most "pro-Israel" president in American history, was able to garner only 24 percent of the Jewish vote in 2004. Fully 76 percent voted for Sen. John Kerry according to exit polls. Jews have traditionally voted overwhelmingly for Democrats since the 1930s. That didn't change after the Second Intifada, 9/11, or the invasion of Iraq. Indeed, Bush was able to increase his Jewish support by only five percentage points from the 2000 election. Former President Ronald Reagan received 39 percent of the Jewish vote in 1980, the largest for a Republican presidential candidate since Dwight Eisenhower garnered 40 percent in 1956.

This fall, a majority of American Jews are expected to vote for Democratic Sen. Barack Obama rather than for Republican Sen. John McCain (though the numbers may shade slightly more toward McCain than usual; he is currently polling at Reagan numbers among the Jewish community). Although the Jews only make up two percent of the U.S. population, they could determine the election's outcome, because so many of them live in Florida, New York, Illinois, Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California and Texas; particularly if the race is close. These are the states with the largest number of electors in the Electoral College. As the elections of 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000 proved, a close election is won in the Electoral College. And this election may follow that trend.

One of the decisions that American Jews will have to wrestle with between now and November is whether and to what extent Obama favors Israel. A primary input in their decision is how they react to the fact that Obama has surrounded himself with perceived anti-Israel counselors like the Rev. Jeremiah Wright; Zbigniew Brzezinski; David Bonior, who was the most anti-Israel member of the House of Representatives; Chuck Hagel, the most anti-Israel member of the American Senate; retired General Merrill McPeak, a former U.S. Air Force chief of staff; and Joseph Cirincione, director of nuclear policy at the Center for American Progress, who, despite Iran's threats to annihilate Israel, wants the latter to reduce or eliminate its nuclear capability. Nor do any of these advisors seem to take seriously Iran's quest for nuclear weapons and the persistent threat of its president to wipe Israel off the map.

But the Jewish liberal vote for Obama might also come from that core of Jews who believe along the lines of Obama or who totally disagree with McCain; i.e. they believe that our invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan were wrongly conceived and badly executed, that the United States has no interests worth fighting for, or that if we do have national interests, they must be subordinated to soft power and synchronized with the wishes of Europe, the United Nations, or world opinion. Or they might simply feel that "evil" is relative, and that our primary duty is to eradicate the "root causes" of our adversaries' discontent.

While there is some anti-Semitism in the U.S., the Jews are now a respected and integral part of the American mosaic. Two Jews sit on the nine-member Supreme Court, 13 sit in the 100-member Senate, and 30 are in the 435-member House of Representatives. Yet, as dwellers in the Jewish Diaspora, they must always ask themselves if presidential candidates, besides being good for the United States, will be good for them and for the things they care about.

In order to win the "Jewish vote," candidates often try to out-trump each other in demonstrating their support for Israel. The media plays into this game, as many journalists and pundits tend to assume, along with politicians, that American Jewish opinion is monolithic (and uniformly hawkish) when it comes to Israel; that no criticism of Israeli policies or actions will be tolerated; and that no pressure should ever be put on Israel to make compromises.

But American Jewish opinion, although not as diverse as that of Jewish Israelis, is more varied on Israel than most in the media would let us believe. According to the November 2007 American Jewish Committee's annual survey of Jewish opinion, 46 percent of American Jews supported the creation of a Palestinian state, with 43 percent opposing and 12 percent not sure -- this, in a poll taken just months after Hamas' violent takeover of Gaza. Asked whether they were "willing to compromise on the status of Jerusalem as a united city under Israeli jurisdiction" in a permanent peace deal with the Palestinians, 58 percent said no, 36 percent said yes, and seven percent were not sure.

Many Israelis, however, are concerned that Obama might be hostile to the Jewish state. When I was on a cruise with my family about four weeks ago, I spoke with a group of Jews from Venezuela who were convinced that Obama would be "bad for the Jews." When I asked them why, most of the "facts" they cited about Obama were patently false, based on the same email rumors and innuendo that have been sent to American Jews. Of course, their biggest concern was his willingness to sit down with Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez "without any preconditions". As an aside, the anti-Semitic horrors of the Chavez administration I heard them tell were horrific at best.

The loss of Jewish support for McCain comes from the selection of his vice-presidential candidate who can be likened to Annie from "Annie get your gun"; his closeness and support for George W. Bush and his ticket's support for pro-life policies. Having said that, he does enjoy the strong backing of Democrat-turned-Independent Jewish Senator Joseph Lieberman, who made history as the first Jewish vice presidential candidate.

Stephen Muss, a Florida developer and one of the biggest Floridian supporters of the Democratic Party in the past has, this time, pledged his support and money to McCain and the Republican Party. The Jewish vote makes up about five percent of the vote in Florida and could have a significant role in this year's election.

A non-scientific recent review of the Jewish vote indicates an intuitive split: the observant seem to be inclined to vote McCain/Republican, the Reform are inclined to vote Obama/Democrat, and the Conservative are split more evenly than the other two groups. A quick review of the organization Rabbis for Obama clearly shows an overwhelming number of Reform rabbis.

On what basis will the Jews vote this fall? There are as many predictions as there are Jews in the U.S. This much is clear: in a year in which the electoral vote tally could be extremely close, the Jewish vote will be very important to both candidates, and the candidates are wooing the Jewish vote more than ever. I believe that most Jews will vote based on their own set of values -- Jewish, American, and otherwise.