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Putting Arab reform under the microscope

Collection of essays takes a closer look at Mideast democracy promotion

By Seth Mandel
October 24, 2008 

Lost amid the current promotion of democracy -- usually via democratic elections -- in the Arab Middle East are honest indicators of genuine reform, according to Marina Ottaway, director of the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.

"[Bush administration officials] were citing examples of successes ... in the Middle East -- they were talking about Bahrain as a success, they were talking about various countries as successes," Ottaway told The Jewish State. "And so we said it's time somebody took a serious look at how much change in fact there has been in these countries, and whether or not this change amounted to something."

Ottaway, along with former deputy editor of the Arab Reform Bulletin Julia Choucair-Vizoso, co-edited "Beyond the Façade: Political Reform in the Arab World," a collection of essays on Arab reform. The book can be ordered at the Carnegie Web site, www.carnegieendowment.org.

Ottaway said that political reform is more often a case of degrees and steps than of quick turnarounds. What was needed, she said, was a simple process of evaluation to avoid falling into the trap of trusting perceived reform.

"If Saudi Arabia decides to have elections -- carefully controlled elections for local municipal councils that have no power -- you cannot say that this is a total lie, because the election took place," she said. But was it a substantial change of the power structure? Not at all.

"So it's possible to point to formal changes that have taken place, even if those changes don't really make much difference," she said.

Are we making a mistake by grading reform in the often oppressive world of Arab governance by the barometer of elections? Ottaway believes we are.

"Elections are only one part of reform, in the sense that in some ways they are the least meaningful, because what we have learned since the end of the Cold War is that incumbent governments are becoming very good at allowing the holding of elections, but organizing them in such a way they their power is nowhere contested," she said. "And that is what we are seeing in a lot of Arab countries."

For example, she said, if Egypt held elections today, most of the population would vote for the incumbent party, because any real opposition would be barred from participating. That means that before elections are held in Egypt, the law governing the registration and participation of political parties must be amended.

"In other words, elections don't mean anything in Egypt unless the spectrum of political parties that are allowed to participate increases in such a way that people are presented with a meaningful choice," she said.

Sometimes municipal elections are held, she said, because countries are pressured into making some effort at reform, and nobody has any idea what the first step should be.

Many of the countries involved, she said, are ruled by a royal family of several thousand people, whose power is protected by a web of intricate alliances within the religious establishment.

"How in the world do you move a country like that toward a democracy?" she said.

Another factor, according to Ottaway, is that the West prefers the status quo in many Arab countries, for fear of disturbing a balance that favors Western interests. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak isn't in good health, and any dramatic change would leave a Western "ally" weaker than his Islamist opponents.

"I think right now in the case of Egypt certainly there is not much taste for doing anything that rocks the boat," Ottaway said.

Aside from elections, then, Ottaway said a prescription for reform should include improvements to Arab countries' human rights situations.

"Human rights is not the equivalent of democracy," Ottaway warned, but added that a country cannot be a democracy without respect for human rights. "Because human rights are so important, and affect the people so directly, I think certainly there should be pressure to try and improve the human rights situation."

Beyond that, Ottaway said, steps toward reform would have to be country-specific. In Saudi Arabia, for example, an important step would be to enhance the functioning of certain institutions so that decisions aren't based solely on what affects the wealth of the royal family.

Ottaway suggested that the Shura Council, the legislative body of the Saudi government, be given more power and independence over the national budget to increase the sense of transparency and accountability.

One surprising trend in Arab reform, Ottaway said, is that monarchies are becoming more "enlightened" in many respects, while the Arab republics are sliding further away from true reform.

One example, she offered, is Bahrain. Bahrain is ruled by King Shaikh Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, yet the sphere of political debate has become more open, and there has been improvement in the areas of human rights and freedom of the press. By comparison, some republics, like Egypt and Syria, are seeing the leadership increasingly transfer from father to son.

Nonetheless, Ottaway said that supporting full reform can be difficult for even the most enthusiastic proponents of democracy and human rights, because such changes represent significant risks for all parties involved.

"Change is always destabilizing, let's face it," Ottaway said. "You wouldn't have change without having some instability."