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And then there were two
It's time for Netanyahu and Putin to play 'Let's Make a Deal'

Seth Mandel
THE JEWISH STATE
September 18, 2009

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was, indeed, in Russia when he went "off the radar" last week. How he got there was simple: the tailwinds of change sweeping out the old status quo in the Middle East power structure carried him there.

On Monday, Sept. 7, Netanyahu disappeared. Press couldn't get a straight answer from the Prime Minister's Office where he was, and reporters were frustrated by the discipline of the cover-up.

He was visiting a top-secret military installation in Israel, they were told.

He wasn't. He was in Russia, presumably meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor finally admitted Bibi was in Russia, but would give no further details.

Most of the discussion about the meeting has centered on the interception last month of a Russian cargo ship off the coast of West Africa. Rumor has it that the ship contained Russian S-300 air defense missiles bound for Iran. The missiles would help Iran deflect an Israeli airstrike on its nuclear facilities, should Israel decide the clock has run out on the West's negotiations with Iran over its illegal nuclear weapons program.

But it's likely that Netanyahu's trip was more comprehensive, and for good reason. Both Netanyahu and Putin (who is really calling the shots in Russia) are making the necessary adjustments to a Middle East conflict in which the United States, for the first time in decades, will sit on the sidelines.

Nature abhors a vacuum. Bibi, who has returned to the premiership after having been forced out by American meddling, and Putin, who left the presidency but is again pulling the strings on Russian Mideast policy, did something the moment called for: filled the vacuum.

Why the need? Why is there a vacuum? In brief, U.S. President Barack Obama revealed he would accept Iran's offer for talks, and forgo new sanctions. There's a catch, however: Iran made clear those talks -- unlike the 30-plus direct negotiations the Bush administration held with high-level Iranian diplomats -- will not include its nuclear program. If the talks will not include Iran's nuclear program, then the U.S. negotiators should expect to learn much about the weather in Tehran, and nothing else.

Hence, Bibi's decision to get serious. Someone had to.

Netanyahu's judgment call was likely confirmed upon his return, if he flipped on the news and watched any of Obama's Sept. 9 health care speech. In a strange and unprecedented act, Obama called a Joint Session of Congress to upbraid the Republican minority for its opposition to the president's health care reform plan.

Joint Sessions of Congress are almost exclusively reserved for presidential inaugurations, wartime addresses by the president, the counting of electoral votes after a presidential election, memorials for deceased presidents, and addresses by foreign heads of state. They are always called -- and this includes Bill Clinton's health care address -- to encourage bipartisanship and to attempt to unify a body politic.

And so, what must foreign leaders have thought watching Obama that night, tetchy and querulous, snappish and vague, with flashes of anger aimed at a near-powerless minority party over a domestic policy dispute?

Almost assuredly they thought there was a dearth of both experience and leadership in Washington, and Netanyahu and Putin adjusted accordingly.

In that case, what precisely did Netanyahu and Putin/Medvedev discuss? We can only guess at this point, but the smart money is on more than just the ship carrying S-300 missiles. Because it produces an air defense system far superior to anything the Iranians currently possess, Russia holds a degree of power and influence in the Mideast that must be as intoxicating as the Kremlin's finest vodka to them.

They haven't had this kind of clout in the region -- or anywhere outside the motherland -- in a long time. A simple acknowledgement of this by Bibi would probably begin to move the Russians in the right direction.

I imagine Netanyahu's conversation with Putin was a classic man-to-man. Bibi would have said: "Comrade, you and I are the ones who will decide what the future of the Middle East will look like. We can be as adversaries -- I can order my air strike against your defense systems protecting the Iranian installations. Or, you can withhold the missiles from Iran. The Israeli Air Force will win either way. The only question is: whose side will you be on?"

What would Putin get out of standing back and letting the Israeli air strike go forward? The Russians would be able to tell the West that, while the U.S. took a pass, Russia actively prevented nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Russia would have its power back, and get in the good graces of the West by actually doing something helpful.

Of course, I don't recommend trusting Putin's word. If the West is to save itself this time, men of action will be needed.

Bibi is apparently the only such head of state in the West right now. And -- with or without the U.S., with or without Europe -- he won't do this alone.

Seth Mandel is the managing editor of The Jewish State.